Quantum Leaps: The New Era of Generative Video

Hollywood is on edge. YouTube is captivated. Meanwhile, the rest of us are trying to discern what is real. Welcome to the era of Generative Video.

It all began with text. ChatGPT could compose poetry. Then it progressed to images, with Midjourney producing breathtaking sunsets. Now, we have reached the final frontier: Temporal Coherence. We can generate full-motion video from nothing but a single sentence.

From Glitchy Nightmares to 4K Cinema

Just twelve months ago, AI-generated video was a source of memes—think of Will Smith eating spaghetti or glitchy, morphing faces. It was amusing, unsettling and clearly "not there yet."

Then came Sora and Google Veo.

Suddenly, we were treated to high-definition drone shots of cities that don't exist and historical footage of California during the Gold Rush that appeared to be filmed on 35mm. The physics were (mostly) accurate; reflections danced off puddles and hair blew in the wind. The "Uncanny Valley" was not merely crossed but soared over at Mach 10.

The Democratization of "Blockbuster"

The most exciting implication here isn't the potential displacement of filmmakers; it's the empowerment of storytellers who previously lacked the budget to realize their visions.

Imagine a child in Nebraska with a sci-fi epic in their mind. Traditionally, they would need $200 million, a studio greenlight and a VFX team to bring that vision to life. With tools like Veo, all they need is a subscription and their imagination. We are on the brink of a creative explosion akin to what the Canon 5D did for indie filmmakers, but amplified a thousandfold.

The Trust Deficit

However, with great power comes significant confusion. If video can no longer serve as proof of reality, what becomes of news? What happens to evidence in court?

• The Deepfake Election: We are entering political cycles where a candidate can be depicted saying or doing anything, in high definition.
• Watermarking Warfare: Tech giants are racing to implement C2PA (content credentials) to tag AI-generated footage. However, hackers are equally quick to strip those tags away.

What Happens to Actors?

This is the conversation currently captivating Los Angeles. If an AI can generate a background extra, why hire one? If an AI can recreate a young Harrison Ford, why cast a lookalike?

We suspect the future will be hybrid. Authentic human performances may become a premium luxury. "Shot on Real Film with Real Humans" could become a marketing tagline, similar to "Organic" in the food industry. But for background roles, establishing shots and explosions? The robots will take those jobs.